Rates Near 7% and National Sales at a Record Low: Why Northern Virginia Is Still Playing by Different Rules

Market update for the week of November 10, 2026

The national housing headlines this month are hard to miss. Mortgage rates are hovering just above 7%, buyer activity has fallen to record lows, and home prices nationally are starting to slip for the first time in years. If you're thinking about buying or selling in Northern Virginia, here's what those numbers actually mean, and why our local market looks quite different from the national picture.

The national picture: slower, softer, and more negotiable

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.18% for the week of November 5, down from 7.24% the week before. That's the third straight weekly decline, but it's still nearly a full point higher than a year ago (6.22%).

Those rates are keeping a lot of buyers on the sidelines. Redfin's latest report (four weeks ending November 1) shows:

• Pending sales down 16.4% year over year, the lowest level in Redfin's records
• Median sale price of $388,604, down 0.4% from last year, the third straight weekly decline
• 21.2% of listings had a price drop, up from 20.6%
• 4.6 months of supply, which puts the national market squarely in balanced territory
• Median monthly mortgage payment of $2,777, up 11.1% from a year ago

In plain terms: nationally, buyers have more choices and more room to negotiate than they've had in several years.

Northern Virginia: more inventory, but still a tight market

Here at home, the story is more nuanced. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors' most recent report (September 2026, covering Fairfax and Arlington counties, Alexandria, Fairfax City, Falls Church, Vienna, Herndon and Clifton) shows:

• Median sold price: $744,950, up 4.2% year over year, while prices nationally are flat to slightly down
• Active listings: 3,477, up 30.7%, with condo and townhome inventory up nearly 50%
• Closed sales: 1,250, down 7.5%
• Average days on market: 28, unchanged from last year
• Months of supply: 2.5, roughly half the national level

Loudoun County followed a similar pattern: a median sold price of $758,500 (up 0.8%), active listings up 34.1%, and closed sales down 17.8%.

So yes, buyers in Northern Virginia have noticeably more homes to choose from than they did a year ago, especially condos and townhomes. But at 2.5 months of supply, our region is still tighter than the rest of the country, and well-priced homes are still selling in about four weeks.

What this means for you

If you're buying: This is the best selection Northern Virginia buyers have seen in a while, particularly in the condo and townhome segment. Nationally, buyers are increasingly using seller concessions to buy down their interest rate, and that strategy is worth discussing here too, especially on homes that have been sitting. As a reminder, buyers now sign a written representation agreement before touring homes; we walk through exactly what that agreement covers so there are no surprises.

If you're selling: Prices in our area are still holding, but buyers have more options and less urgency than they did in 2024 and 2025. Pricing correctly from day one, presenting the home well, and being open to creative terms like rate buydowns matter more now than they have in years. Overpriced homes are the ones sitting.

If you're waiting: Rates have eased three weeks in a row. Small moves in rates can make a meaningful difference in a monthly payment, so it pays to know your numbers now rather than when the market turns.

The bottom line

National headlines will keep talking about a slowdown, and nationally that's accurate. Northern Virginia is shifting too, with more inventory and fewer sales, but demand and prices here remain stronger than in most of the country. The opportunity right now is in understanding exactly where your neighborhood and price point sit.

Have questions about what this means for your home or your next move? Reach out to the Honorable Service Realty Group team. We're always happy to run the numbers with you. You are our mission.

Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via Real Estate News (Nov. 5, 2026); Redfin Housing Market Update (Nov. 5, 2026); Northern Virginia Association of Realtors, Market Statistics: September 2026 (Bright MLS data).